In den letzten Wochen hat der Dollar stark ab- und der Euro stark aufgewertet. Das ist kein Zufall und wird sich weiter fortsetzen.
Parallel to the improvement in equity fundamentals, risks have also increased. We observe an improvement in Japanese equity drivers, but we need more evidence to upgrade Japan.
A softening of Chinese economic activity data in July probably reflects pay-back for strong June results, as well as disruption from high temperatures / drought in parts of the country. Monetary trends suggest that economic growth will remain respectable during the second half.
Six-month growth of global real narrow money* continued to strengthen in June, signalling a likely pick-up in economic momentum in late 2017/early 2018, after a modest near-term slowdown. Monetary acceleration suggests that major central banks are falling behind and will be forced to tighten policies significantly as economic growth and inflation rebound.
Q2 earnings are stronger in the US than in the Eurozone. Currencies are crucial to the relative earnings momentum and are currently a tailwind for US companies.
In den vergangenen Monaten ist die europäische Gemeinschaftswährung massiv aufgewertet worden. Experten gehen davon aus, dass dieser Trend anhalten wird. Das könnte die Wirtschaft belasten.
A fall in Chinese money growth since late 2016 has been reflected in an easing of inflationary pressures rather than a loss of economic momentum. Current monetary trends are judged here to remain consistent with respectable economic expansion, while the PBoC has started to reverse recent policy tightening, which may prevent a further slowdown.
Das Pfund hat den schlimmstmöglichen Ausgang der Brexit-Verhandlungen bereits eingepreist und wird sich konsolidieren. Nachlassendes politische Risiko, höhere Realzinsen und robuste Wirtschaft werden dafür sorgen, dass es im zweiten Halbjahr 2016 graduell steigt und gegenüber dem US-Dollar eventuell sogar die Marke von 1,35 ins Visier nimmt.
Chinese nominal and real economic growth may be starting to moderate, consistent with a slowdown in monetary expansion since the second half of 2016. Money trends, however, remain respectable by historical standards, suggesting that economic weakness will be contained.
Welche Währungen werden sich wie entwickeln? Martin Arnold, Director FX & Macro Strategist bei ETF Securities gibt eine aktuelle Einschätzung der Marktlage zu den wichtigsten Währungen der Welt.
