2018 wird das Jahr der Schwellenländer. Die Wachstumsaussichten sind angemessen und die Risiken scheinen überschaubar. Konsum und Investitionen ziehen nach vielen rückläufigen Jahren wieder an. Risiken scheinen nun primär länderspezifisch zu sein – und sind für die Schwellenländer insgesamt kein Hemmnis.
The recent calling of a snap election in October by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe appears to be a tactical move to shore up political support to extend his term in office. According to recent polls, Abe has traditionally enjoyed a support ratio of around 50%, but this fell to around 30% during July and August this year.
Judging from core employment and broader measures of unemployment, it can be argued that there’s still a fair amount of hidden labour market slack in place. At the same time, other factors including globalization, technological change and digitization, the ageing of the population, insufficient labour union power, lower anchored inflation expectations and sluggish productivity growth seem to be playing a role as well.