For many years the ‘lower for longer’ narrative dominated the macroeconomic backdrop. Medium-term macroeconomic trends are still the principal driver to markets. For multi asset investors the big picture backdrop to markets is simultaneously more complex and more opportunity-rich.
Caroline Randall, Portfoliomanagerin des Capital Group European Growth and Income Fund (LUX) (CGEGI), spricht über ihren Ausblick für Europa und die Positionierung ihres Portfolios in einer herausfordernden Zeit.
Paul O’Connor, Leiter des Multi-Asset-Teams von Janus Henderson Investors, wagt einen ersten Ausblick auf das Jahr 2019.
Investors appeared to finally price in robust growth and policy normalisation. However, the salient risks have not gone away: the Sino-US tariff row remains; the Fed and other central banks appear determined to normalise policy further; and Italian political turmoil looked unlikely to abate.
Despite the flow of negative news about protectionism and crises in emerging economies, global growth is holding up well in Q3. Moreover, the labour market has continued to strengthen, particularly in the US, making two more rate hikes this year increasingly likely.
The US equity rally has been led by the IT sector. This has accounted for 20%-50% of US equity returns since 2016. The rally is now looking stretched on various metrics.
Underweighting government bonds and beeing neutral on other asset classes, seems to be the right asset-strategy right now.
Nach Jahren der Regression feiern festverzinsliche Wertpapiere ein Comeback. Die begehrten alternativen Assets bringt das Revival nicht aus dem Trab.
There is a broad-based improvement in behavioural indicators for risky assets despite the impact of trade fears on the market; we maintain our preference for equities.
“Equity markets may not be cheap, but there are some bargains that are beginning to emerge,” says Luca Paolini, chief strategist at Pictet Asset Management.