Already in March, there was a lot against positive economic perspectives in Euroland. GDP figures released for the first quarter today are consistent with this assessment. An assessment of Simon Ward, Simon Ward, Chief Economist at Janus Henderson Investors.
The earlier monetary slowdown signals a likely loss of global economic momentum through late 2018, so Simon Ward Chief Economist at Janus Henderson Investors.
Der Ausblick für die italienische Wirtschaft innerhalb der WWU ist nicht sonderlich positiv und die Prognosen des IWF für das mittelfristige Wirtschaftswachstum eher schwach. Hat der IWF recht?
The monetary forecast of a global economic slowdown over the remainder of 2018 is receiving confirmation from shorter-term non-monetary leading indicators.
Some expressed concern that a global economic slowdown during 2018 would be accompanied by a rise in inflationary pressures, constraining central banks’ ability to provide policy support for weakening markets. Recent inflation news provides some support for this view.
Satisfactory Chinese activity numbers for the first quarter / March are consistent with monetary trends in mid-2017. Subsequent monetary weakness, which continued in March, suggests a significant slowdown over the remainder of 2018.
A further fall in global real narrow money expansion in early 2018 suggests that a recent slowdown in economic activity will be sustained until late in the year.
Better emerging market domestic demand growth prospects explain most of the outperformance of EM equities. The global IT sector poses the main short-term risk.
Economist Willem Verhagen looks at the changing phases of the global economic cycle, and Strategist M.J. Bakkum examines how international trade worries might be impacting the world’s emerging economies.
Previous posts (e.g. here) suggested that weaker economic growth and a cooling of inflationary pressures would prompt the Chinese authorities to take steps to ease monetary conditions in mid-2018. A recent fall in interbank rates could be an early indication that a policy shift is under way.
