Der Ausblick für die italienische Wirtschaft innerhalb der WWU ist nicht sonderlich positiv und die Prognosen des IWF für das mittelfristige Wirtschaftswachstum eher schwach. Hat der IWF recht?
The monetary forecast of a global economic slowdown over the remainder of 2018 is receiving confirmation from shorter-term non-monetary leading indicators.
Some expressed concern that a global economic slowdown during 2018 would be accompanied by a rise in inflationary pressures, constraining central banks’ ability to provide policy support for weakening markets. Recent inflation news provides some support for this view.
Satisfactory Chinese activity numbers for the first quarter / March are consistent with monetary trends in mid-2017. Subsequent monetary weakness, which continued in March, suggests a significant slowdown over the remainder of 2018.
A further fall in global real narrow money expansion in early 2018 suggests that a recent slowdown in economic activity will be sustained until late in the year.
Better emerging market domestic demand growth prospects explain most of the outperformance of EM equities. The global IT sector poses the main short-term risk.
Economist Willem Verhagen looks at the changing phases of the global economic cycle, and Strategist M.J. Bakkum examines how international trade worries might be impacting the world’s emerging economies.
Previous posts (e.g. here) suggested that weaker economic growth and a cooling of inflationary pressures would prompt the Chinese authorities to take steps to ease monetary conditions in mid-2018. A recent fall in interbank rates could be an early indication that a policy shift is under way.
UK monetary trends continued to weaken in February, suggesting deteriorating economic prospects and arguing for the MPC to hold off on plans to raise interest rates.
Guillermo Felices and Colin Harte from BNPP AM’s Multi Asset, Quantitative & Solutions team (MAQS) and Richard Barwell, Senior Economist, present their roadmap for navigating protectionism.