Carmignac: Didier Saint-Georges kommentiert das aktuelle EU-Konjunkturpaket

Didier Saint-Georges, Managing Director und Mitglied des Strategischen Investmentkomitees von Carmignac, kommentiert das aktuelle EU-Konjunkturpaket:

28.05.2020 | 14:11 Uhr

Didier Saint-Georges, Mitglied des Strategischen Investmentkomitees von Carmignac:

"The recovery fund as outlined in the Commission proposal is checking most of the boxes we were hoping for: 80% of the funds go to member states, a genuine bottom-up analysis of the needs by sector has been performed to allocate the funds to the most impacted countries, and conditionality seems relatively loose at this stage."

"Of course, negotiations will now start on the conditionality and on the proportion of grants vs loans. Several Emergency EU summits will certainly need to take place in the coming months in order to reach an adoption by year-end."

"The political signal is very strong, which matters for risk premiums, sovereign and credit spreads."

"Economically, as the disbursements will be spread over four years starting in 2021, one should not confuse this European recovery fund with the support that is needed in the short term to go through the current economic collapse of several member states. For this, individual countries are still mostly on their own and heavily depend on ECB’s support. The extension and increase in the PEPP, which we should know more about next week, remains an essential ingredient to allow countries to spend their way out of the crisis."

"Let’s not forget that what has made the majority of the weaker member states weak is not primarily the lack of fiscal discipline but the lack of growth. The priority has to be to allow them to spend for growth."

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