Pictet: Fallende Ölpreise sind mehr Segen als Fluch

Oil prices have fallen below USD80 a barrel, the lowest level since August 2005 on an inflationadjusted basis. The steep decline since June is likely to provide a lift for the global economy by boosting consumer spending. Consumer and transport stocks should benefit, as will the economies of oil importers in the developing world, such as India and Turkey. But there will also be losers. The economic problems of Russia and Venezuela could deepen should oil prices fall further.

A decline in oil prices is a rare event during an expansionary phase in the global economy. The last time oil fell as much as it has done recently was in the aftermath of the Asian crisis in 1998 when global oil demand fell at an annualised rate of around 5 per cent, which compares with a rise of 0.75 per cent currently. Indeed, excluding 1998, this is the largest fall in the oil price outside of a recession in the past 20 years.

Although sharp falls in the oil price are usually precipitated by a sharp fall in demand, the causes of this recent slide are more complex.

Falling demand is clearly a factor. The global economy is growing at a subdued pace, while China’s shift from an export-based to a domestic demand-based economic model has also resulted in lower-than-expected demand for energy resources in Asia. Rapidly slowing imports from the US are also responsible – the country has imported 7 million barrels of oil per day on average this year, more than a third below its peak and down 17 per cent from 2012.

However, we believe that supply factors have been more important than weakening demand. In the US, the Shale gas revolution has redrawn the energy landscape. Indeed, thanks to the Shale gas, the US is set to become the biggest oil producer in the world by 2019, having already increased its output by 70 per cent in the past seven years. Yet, in the face of rising supply elsewhere, OPEC countries have yet to take any action to cut their own production.

Some industry observers also suggested Saudi Arabia, currently the world’s Number 1 oil producer, has allowed the oil price to fall to put pressure on its US shale rivals, who need higher prices to pay for the cost of development. Although the oil price is currently below Saudi Arabia’s breakeven price, a level which pushes its budget into deficit, the country’s foreign assets of close to 100 per cent of GDP give it flexibility to withstandlower oil prices for a longer period of time. What is more, growing geopolitical tensions between the US and Russia and Saudi Arabia and Iran may also be adding to oil price volatility.

Der vollständige Kommentar im pdf-Dokument