Robeco: A good enough end to a roller coaster COP
COP28 was a two-week roller coaster that started on a high, plunged midway into controversy and emerged with what some hail as a landmark achievement. But not everyone was thrilled with the ride or the finale.
18.12.2023 | 05:57 Uhr
In a pre-COP discussion,
we asked Lucian Peppelenbos, Robeco’s climate and biodiversity
strategist, for his views on a successful COP. This week, we checked
back to see whether his initially cautious optimism had changed, and to
get his final verdict on whether it was a good or bad COP. Meanwhile,
Peter van der Werf, Robeco’s Head of Engagement and top COP28 envoy, reports on what went on inside COP’s colored zones and its impact on investors.
Global stocktake is working as Paris planned
A first-ever global ‘stocktake’ revealed the world is still underperforming and headed toward a trajectory of 2.4°C by 2050. Though it was insufficient, Peppelenbos is satisfied. “Pre-COP policy pledges of governments reduced global emissions from a current 59 gigatonnes (GT) to 38 GT by 2030. During the summit countries agreed to an additional cut of 4 GT by 2030, which is slightly more than 10%, so I am happy with the progress.”
“To make good on that target, 130 countries agreed to triple renewable energy and double energy efficiency by 2030. In addition, oil and gas companies agreed to eliminate methane emissions, a short-lived but super-potent greenhouse gas – and not by 2050 but by 2030. That translates to serious accelerated action in this decade.”
Though that outcome may seem incremental, Peppelenbos adds that this is how the COP process was intended to work. “In Paris, the emissions trajectory was at 4°C by 2050, now we’ve agreed to 2.2°C. When delegates meet again next year, temperature trajectories will move down even further.”
Noteworthy still is that the current political landscape didn’t undermine progress. “Russia is still at war with Ukraine, the Middle East is unsettled, and there’s friction between the US and China. It was significant that leaders still agreed to lower emissions despite geopolitical tensions globally,” he says.
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