Morgan Stanley IM: Debt Ceiling Theatre vs. Drama: What to Watch for Next in Markets
Podcast
Jim Caron, Co-Lead Global Portfolio Manager and Co-Chief Investment Officer, Global Balanced Risk Control Team, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.
01.06.2023 | 07:05 Uhr
Sad to say, but the debt ceiling debate, and ‘risk-event’, is all
too frequent an occurrence for markets. While much focus is placed on
issues leading up to the ‘event’, the real market impact is often what
happens after.
This question has been consuming the narrative in some parts of the
market that implies there is impending ‘liquidity risk’ to the markets
post debt ceiling. SPOILER ALERT: We don’t see it that way.
But, while ‘liquidity’ could be a risk, it’s not our base case.
Perhaps one can take feeble consolation in that there are other things
to worry about.
Post-debt ceiling theatre, consumer strength is where the real
longer term risk lies, what I termed the drama, or perhaps trauma.
Inflation, earnings and profit margins and ultimately/possibly asset
prices may take notice.
The point here is that although market uncertainties still exist, we
are not devoid of well valued investment opportunities. As we like to
say, being balanced is better than being defensive. Fat tails exists on
both sides of the distribution of outcomes, why not incorporate both
instead of just picking one.
See below for important disclosures.
Risk Considerations
Diversification does not eliminate the
risk of loss. There is no assurance that the Strategy will achieve its
investment objective. Portfolios are subject to market risk, which is
the possibility that the market values of securities owned by the
portfolio will decline and that the value of portfolio shares may
therefore be less than what you paid for them. Market values can change
daily due to economic and other events (e.g. natural disasters, health
crises, terrorism, conflicts and social unrest) that affect markets,
countries, companies or governments. It is difficult to predict the
timing, duration, and potential adverse effects (e.g. portfolio
liquidity) of events. Accordingly, you can lose money investing in this
portfolio. Please be aware that this strategy may be subject to certain
additional risks. There is the risk that the Adviser’s asset allocation methodologyand assumptions
regarding the Underlying Portfolios may be incorrect in light of actual
market conditions and the Portfolio may not achieve its investment
objective. Share prices also tend to be volatile and there is a
significant possibility of loss. The portfolio’s investments in commodity-linked notes
involve substantial risks, including risk of loss of a significant
portion of their principal value. In addition to commodity risk, they
may be subject to additional special risks, such as risk of loss of
interest and principal, lack of secondary market and risk of greater
volatility, that do not affect traditional equity and debt securities. Currency fluctuations could erase investment gains or add to investment losses. Fixed-income securities
are subject to the ability of an issuer to make timely principal and
interest payments (credit risk), changes in interest rates
(interest-rate risk), the creditworthiness of the issuer and general
market liquidity (market risk). In a rising interest-rate environment,
bond prices may fall and may result in periods of volatility and
increased portfolio redemptions. In a declining interest-rate
environment, the portfolio may generate less income. Longer-term securities may be more sensitive to interest rate changes. Equity and foreign securities are generally more volatile than fixed income securities and are subject to currency, political, economic and market risks. Equity values fluctuate in response to activities specific to a company. Stocks of small-capitalization companies
carry special risks, such as limited product lines, markets and
financial resources, and greater market volatility than securities of
larger, more established companies. The risks of investing in emerging market countries are greater than risks associated with investments in foreign developed markets. Exchange traded funds (ETFs)
shares have many of the same risks as direct investments in common
stocks or bonds and their market value will fluctuate as the value of
the underlying index does. By investing in exchange traded funds ETFs
and other Investment Funds, the portfolio absorbs both its own
expenses and those of the ETFs and Investment Funds it invests in.
Supply and demand for ETFs and Investment Funds may not be correlated to
that of the underlying securities. Derivative instruments can be
illiquid, may disproportionately increase losses and may have a
potentially large negative impact on the portfolio’s performance. A currency forward is a hedging tool that does not involve any upfront payment. The use of leverage may increase volatility in the Portfolio.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES:
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
The returns referred to in the audio are those of representative
indices and are not meant to depict the performance of a specific
investment.
There is no guarantee that any investment
strategy will work under all market conditions, and each investor should
evaluate their ability to invest for the long-term, especially during
periods of downturn in the market.
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