BNP Paribas Asset Management’s Multi Asset, Quantitative & Solutions (‘MAQS’) investment group has published its Asset Allocation Outlook for 2020
03.12.2019 | 13:55 Uhr
· Global growth converging towards trend
o slowdown to persist in 2020
o US growth should outperform Europe and Japan
· Central bank policy to remain easy
o room for further easing looks limited in Europe and Japan
o more scope in the US and China if needed
· Fiscal policy could be a game changer
o US and Chinese policies are already expansionary
o hurdles for European fiscal stimulus are high
· ‘Fragile goldilocks’ holds
o stabilising data
o loose central bank policy
o short-term de-globalisation dynamics supporting risky assets
· Beware the risks
o after a strong 2019, our base case is vulnerable to a more entrenched ‘synchronised slowdown’ or a sustained ‘reflation’ environment
· Fixed income is most at risk
o fixed income markets most at risk from sustained move to reflation
· Modus operandi: nimble & diversifying
o strategic risk/reward is unattractive
o our base case is also vulnerable to tail risks/end-cycle dynamics
o we see merit in a nimble approach and in building robust portfolios/diversifying
· Overweight equities
o in the latest dip we added overweight positions in equities again
· Underweight core EMU duration
o we have reduced our short exposure given yield moves
o risks from reflation remain large for rates
· Search for yield
o we still believe in searching for yield
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