Janus Henderson Investors: Die Leitzinssenkung der Fed wird nicht ausreichen, um eine schwerwiegende Störung des Wirtschaftslebens zu vermeiden

Ein englischsprachiger Kommentar von Andrew Mulliner,  Global Bonds Portfolio Manager, zur überraschenden Leitzinssenkung der US-Notenbank (Fed) am Dienstag, 3. Februar 2020.

"The Fed managed to surprise markets with a rate cut that was already almost entirely priced into bond markets. Odd as that may sound, it is fitting, given the tenuous ability of the Fed to combat the threat of the growing threat of the Coronavirus to the US and global economy.

The last time the Fed cut rates by 50bps outside of a scheduled meeting was October 2008, in the weeks following the collapse of Lehman brothers and as the financial world looked into the abyss. That we see a similar response from the Fed today, can both be cheered, better to act boldly than timidly in such uncertain times, as well as feared, how bad can this get?

What no one can question is that after a wild week in markets last week, the Fed is making a statement. The Fed will act to support the economy and the functioning markets in anyway it can. However, whilst the backing of the Fed is a prerequisite for calming markets, the reality remains that curtailing the spread of coronavirus is far from certain. With headlines of a school being shuttered in New York this afternoon, we are far from being able to sound the all clear for economic activity. The reality is a supply shock (due to disrupted supply chains with links to China) is now potentially being met with a demand shock (cancellation of events, travel; consumption in general) should more dramatic measures be required to contain the spread of the virus. In such a scenario, cutting rates certainly won’t hurt, but it certainly won’t be enough to avoid major economic disruption.

To paraphrase the Winston Churchill, probably this is not the beginning of the end for this global event, but it may be the end of the beginning, as monetary and fiscal authorities begin to spool up their response to the growing shock."