Janus Henderson Investors: Auswirkungen des Coronavirus auf Technologieunternehmen

Richard Clode, Portfoliomanager im Global Technology Team von Janus Henderson Investors
Technologieaktien

Richard Clode, Portfoliomanager im Global Technology Team von Janus Henderson Investors, setzt sich mit den Folgen des Coronavirus auf Angebot und Nachfrage von Technologieunternehmen auseinander.

28.02.2020 | 10:10 Uhr

How is the coronavirus impacting the supply and demand for technology companies?  

As technology investors we focus on long-term secular growth trends but as active managers we also dynamically assess all risks to our portfolios,  including the recent coronavirus outbreak. That risk has been more focused on China until the past week as rising concerns around a global pandemic have hit equity markets harder. Treasury yields hitting new lows would also point to rising concerns for global growth and the potential for a recession triggered by this emerging economic shock.

A point that we made about the US-China trade war concerns that also applies here is that China represents a relatively small percentage of global technology spending. For many large technology companies, notably in internet and software, China is a ‘de minimis’ part of their end demand while they have no supply chain there to speak of either.

However, for other sub-sectors notably semiconductors and hardware, China is both an important part of some technology companies’ end demand and supply chain. We are seeing companies such as Apple prudently weaken outlooks following the virus outbreak. Our daily engagement with various technology companies provides us with live updates on the situation in China and we think the progress has so far been encouraging. After the delayed returned to work on the 10th of February following the Chinese New Year, most factories (excluding Wuhan) have reopened and labour is returning while raw material and finished good logistics have successfully restarted. It will take time for factories to reach optimal capacity and there is still the risk of a factory virus outbreak. But given we are currently in the low season of technology demand, supply chain disruption is likely to  be limited and manageable.

On the demand side there are more question marks as to how quickly things will recover, as well as  the Chinese government’s potential stimulus policies to  support the economy. Major end markets like automotive and smartphones have been severely impacted while in e-commerce its intersection with the physical world and the need for offline delivery has led to significant declines there too. We have not seen order cuts to the supply chain yet but it would be prudent to assume that once companies have a firmer idea of demand, their supply chain capacity and channel inventory, they will likely adjust orders over the next couple of months.

We have not been adjusting our portfolios based on any temporary demand shocks and generally the portfolio has limited exposure to the areas mentioned above, given our focus on the  longer-term mega trends of internet transformation, next generation infrastructure, payment digitisation and AI. In some  cases the virus has even had a positive impact on technology, demand notably in online gaming due to the extended holidays and also in collaboration tools given many have been forced to work from home and cancel business travel. In both cases that will require more cloud infrastructure investment. Longer term we expect the coronavirus concerns will only accelerate the existing trend towards automating production given China’s shrinking working population and wage inflation.

The situation outside of China remains much more fluid. A worst case scenario of a global pandemic would undoubtedly have a significant economic impact and given the fragile nature of the global economy could tip the world into recession. For now that remains a low probability outcome and our on the ground reports from an assortment of technology companies in China give us confidence that with the right measures in place the virus could potentially be contained. Historically, these sort of virus outbreaks have had a limited long-term impact on markets and companies. However, as custodians of client capital we  remain highly vigilant and will reassess our portfolio positioning when appropriate.

Diesen Beitrag teilen: