UBS: Ein Signal für ein robusteres globales Wachstum

UBS: Ein Signal für ein robusteres globales Wachstum

Derzeit ist das bloße Wieder­auf­treten des Inflations­risikos die dring­lichere Über­legung für An­leger, nicht die Infla­tion, die ein oder zwei Jahre später an­fallen könnte.

02.06.2021 | 08:36 Uhr

Highlights

  • Inflation risks are tilted to the upside for the first time in at least a decade.
  • We believe this changing balance of risks should prompt a rotation of flows away from growth stocks and other high duration assets and towards beneficiaries of firmer economic activity and price pressures.
  • We continue to prefer procyclical relative value positions in earlier-cycle European, Japanese, and value stocks, and more recently EM ex-China equities. Yield curves should steepen, led by rising longer-term yields, while the US dollar weakens.
  • Considerable uncertainty as to the persistence of inflation will remain in place through year end. This will add to its longevity as a market catalyst and spark bouts of cross-asset volatility over the coming months.
  • The evolution of price pressures this year will not jeopardize the Federal Reserve’s patient, structurally dovish reaction function on rates.


The expansion following the financial crisis was a Goldilocks environment for markets, with growth and inflation neither running too hot nor cold. Early on in this cycle, the outlook for those key macro variables is both higher and more uncertain.

For the first time in at least a decade, the balance of risks for inflation is tilted more to the upside than downside. In our view, appropriate risk management entails that investors need to act and adjust portfolios to account for a potential fundamental change in the landscape – even if they believe those price pressures ultimately prove to be temporary. The key point is that markets will need to trade this shift in the risk distribution now, regardless of what inflation ends up being in a year or two.

We believe this should catalyze flows away from long-duration assets like growth stocks and sovereign bonds in favor of assets that benefit from higher nominal growth. As such, we expect the dollar to continue to weaken, particularly against high-beta emerging market currencies, developed market bond yields to rise as curves steepen, and procyclical relative value positions in European, Japanese, EM ex-China, and value stocks to outperform.

We are positioned for both growth and inflation to be cyclically stronger during this expansion than the prior one, but do not expect the type of upward spiral in inflation that would serve as a sustained headwind to risk assets. That being said, inflation’s ascension as a threat to certain portions of the equity market is one reason why we have moderated our overall risk asset exposure.

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