Derzeit ist das bloße Wiederauftreten des Inflationsrisikos die dringlichere Überlegung für Anleger, nicht die Inflation, die ein oder zwei Jahre später anfallen könnte.
02.06.2021 | 08:36 Uhr
The expansion following the financial crisis was a Goldilocks environment for markets, with growth and inflation neither running too hot nor cold. Early on in this cycle, the outlook for those key macro variables is both higher and more uncertain.
For the first time in at least a decade, the balance of risks for inflation is tilted more to the upside than downside. In our view, appropriate risk management entails that investors need to act and adjust portfolios to account for a potential fundamental change in the landscape – even if they believe those price pressures ultimately prove to be temporary. The key point is that markets will need to trade this shift in the risk distribution now, regardless of what inflation ends up being in a year or two.
We believe this should catalyze flows away from long-duration assets like growth stocks and sovereign bonds in favor of assets that benefit from higher nominal growth. As such, we expect the dollar to continue to weaken, particularly against high-beta emerging market currencies, developed market bond yields to rise as curves steepen, and procyclical relative value positions in European, Japanese, EM ex-China, and value stocks to outperform.
We are positioned for both growth and inflation to be cyclically stronger during this expansion than the prior one, but do not expect the type of upward spiral in inflation that would serve as a sustained headwind to risk assets. That being said, inflation’s ascension as a threat to certain portions of the equity market is one reason why we have moderated our overall risk asset exposure.
Download this article as a PDF
Die auf dieser Website angebotenen Produkte und Dienstleistungen sind Personen mit Wohnsitz in den Vereinigten Staaten von Amerika nicht zugänglich. Benutzer mit Domizil in anderen Staaten beachten bitte die geltenden Verkaufsbeschränkungen für die entsprechenden Dienstleistungen.
© UBS 1998 - 2021. Alle Rechte vorbehalten.
Diesen Beitrag teilen: