Fünf Gründe, warum China den Renminbi nicht abwerten wird.
25.06.2019 | 09:36 Uhr
For years, President Trump has accused China of purposely devaluing the renminbi to boost exports. With trade and political tensions boiling over, the question of whether China will devalue the renminbi often comes up. We don’t think China will intentionally weaken the renminbi to counteract US tariffs. Yes, it weakened about 2.5% versus the US dollar in May when trade tensions resurfaced, but the weakness was largely market-driven.
Chinese authorities have, in fact, leaned hard against
renminbi depreciation through verbal intervention and tightening capital
controls on residents. Evidence also suggests Chinese authorities have
unofficially redeployed the counter-cyclical adjustment factor to fix the renminbi
at stronger levels-
1. A blow to image. China wants to position itself as a
defender of free trade to promote dialogue with non-US partners.
2. A challenge to renminbi internationalization. China has
been working hard to raise the natural global demand for the renminbi. Depreciation
would dampen interest in holding the currency.
3. Financial stability risks. A weaker renminbi inflates
external debt costs and raises worries over the health of China’s financial
4. Cost factors. A weak renminbi makes imported goods more expensive for Chinese consumers. It also raises the costs of imported inputs for Chinese exports, limiting the potential boost to exports.
5. Avoid a repeat of 2015. A wave of capital poured out of China in 2015 after so-called “renminbi devaluation.” China used roughly $1 trillion in foreign currency reserves to stabilize the renminbi and restore investor confidence. Authorities do not want another costly confidence rout.
Ein Marktkommentar von Celeste Tay, Senior Sovereign Analyst, und Kaimin Khaw, Sovereign Analyst. Beide aus dem in Boston ansässigen Hause „Loomis Sayles“, eine Tochter von Natixis Investment Managers.