Natixis IM: Capital Market Pulse

Esty Dwek, Head of Global Strategy bei der Dynamic Solutions Group von Natixis Investment Managers, erwartet, dass sich die Aktienmärkte dank der Unterstützung durch die erwartete Zins­senkung in den USA und den Waffenstillstand im Handelskrieg noch eine Weile nach oben schrauben werden. „Aber für eine Fortsetzung der Rallye, wie wir sie bislang gesehen haben, braucht es ordentliche Unternehmensgewinne; schließlich drohen die Unsicherheit über den Handel und das globale Wachstum die Unternehmen zu belasten.

Zwar sind die Erwartungen an das Ertrags­wachstum bereits deutlich gesunken und negative Prognosen eingepreist; aber Risiken bleiben bestehen. Kurzfristige Korrekturen sind nach wie vor zu erwarten, wenn es neue Schlagzeilen rund um den Handelskrieg gibt. Insgesamt ist es vielleicht nicht die richtige Zeit, zu viel Risiko hinzuzufügen, aber gleichzeitig auch nicht, jedes Risiko aus den Portfolios herauszunehmen.

In Europa ist bereits so viel Negatives eingepreist, dass es für europäische Vermögenswerte leichter ist, positiv zu überraschen als in anderen Regionen. Dennoch bleiben die Anleger aufgrund der anhaltenden politischen Spannungen zurückhaltend. Mittelfristig erwarten wir, dass sich die US-Märkte aufgrund von Wachstums- und Ergebnissteigerungen besser entwickeln werden.

Auf der Rentenseite könnten Staatsanleihen trotz der Korrektur in den letzten Tagen immer noch ein zu negatives Szenario und zu viele Zinssenkungen einpreisen. In Europa notierten die deutschen Bundesanleihen kurzzeitig unter dem Einlagesatz der EZB und zogen Assets von über 13 Billionen Euro in den Bereich negativer Rendite. In den USA liegen die Renditen nun wieder über 2% und nähern sich 2,10%, könnten aber etwas mehr steigen, wenn sich eine Stabilisierung Wirtschaftsdaten einstellt oder die Fed in den kommenden Monaten nicht so schwungvoll agiert wie derzeit erwartet wird. Dennoch halten wir unsere Positionen in defensiveren Strategien als Schutz, da ein starker Renditeanstieg unwahrscheinlich erscheint.“

Den vollständigen „Capital Market Pulse“ der Marktstrategin beim großen globalen Investmenthaus Natixis Investment Managers finden Sie im Folgenden.

Capital Market Puls

 - We still see data pointing to growth stabilizing at levels closer to trend than recession

- Equity markets remain support by the trade truce and expectations for central bank support

- It might be too late to add a lot of risk to portfolios, but we think it’s too early to take it all off

Macroeconomic overview

- Ongoing weakness across manufacturing and trade shouldn’t be a surprise, but service sectors continue to hold up, even showing a small rebound in June. Overall, we expect slower but stable growth around trend levels for the major economies. Despite the recent truce, uncertainty around the US-China trade dispute is likely to continue to weigh on sentiment, adding to risks of a slowdown. Nonetheless, we do not see data pointing to a recession, for now. US Q2 data is pointing to growth around 2-2.5%, and European data will probably also be weaker than Q1 but still around 1% (annualized). Chinese data is showing a similar trend, with policymakers very clear on their intent to support the economy in light of trade tensions.

- The G20 in Osaka saw a new truce in the US-China trade standoff, but we see little reason for a swift resolution given little political cost. The closer we get to election time in the US, the more President Trump will likely worry about growth and therefore pressure for a deal. For now, the US will not impose 25% tariffs on the remaining Chinese imports, China will buy more agricultural products from the US, and the US will back off from Huawei. For now, despite the threat of additional tariffs on Europe because of the Airbus conflict, Europe has escaped Trump’s ire, though the Old Continent remains stuck with the consequences of the US-China dispute, with little power to change the situation. One thing to note is that while a truce is positive, we are still in a world of higher tariffs and higher uncertainty, as demonstrated by the May escalation in the trade dispute.

- We will soon know who will replace Theresa May as Prime Minister, with Boris Johnson still the clear favorite. With him, risks of a no-deal Brexit have risen, and uncertainty is likely to persist, with sterling under renewed pressure, currently trading below 1.25 versus USD.

- The Federal Reserve is broadly expected to cut interest rates at the end of this month, but we still believe that 4 cuts in the coming year are unlikely. The Fed is likely to cut once or twice as ‘insurance’, and end its balance sheet run-off, but is unlikely to embark on an easing cycle given the solid US economy. The lack of higher inflation and still subdued wage growth are ammunition for the Fed to ease, but the current trade truce should remove some uncertainty, implying more easing might not be needed. Indeed, Treasury yields have retreated somewhat. While waiting for the official meeting, markets are likely to focus on this week’s semi-annual testimony by Mr. Powell.

- Not to be outdone, the European Central Bank reiterated its dovish stance, saying that they were prepared to cut rates again and to restart their bond purchase program if inflation continues to undershoot their target. Mrs. Lagarde, Mr. Draghi’s chosen successor, is likely to keep the current dovish tone, and will also look to pressure European policymakers on fiscal support to boost growth and inflation across Europe.

- For now, Italy reduced its fiscal deficit, avoiding punishment from European institutions, but risks remain surrounding the 2020 budget, with Mr. Salvini feeling empowered by the European election results to support growth with fiscal accommodation. In other European periphery news, Greece elected a new Prime Minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, from center right New Democracy party.

- Oil has been range-bound, stuck between support geopolitical tensions and pressure from an uncertain economic outlook. OPEC+ agreed to extent production cuts by 9 months to March 2020, a trend we expect to continue in the short term. Gold has retreated somewhat from recent highs on better trade and growth news, as well as yields rising. Short term uncertainty is likely to keep the shiny metal support for now.

- Currency wars are back in the headlines, with the ECB matching Federal Reserve dovishness and keeping EUR under pressure. President Trump continues to talk down the dollar. While USD could see some downside in the short term, we believe that higher growth and interest rates will limit downside, especially if markets need to reprice fewer cuts in the coming months. For now, the Yen is the main loser as safe haven demand has supported JPY. In EM, TRY sold off as President Erdogan abruptly replaced central bank Governor Murat Cetinkaya with Deputy Governor Murat Uysal, hurting central bank independence further.

Market outlook

- Equity markets are continuing their June rebound, as expectations for Fed easing and the trade truce support markets. We believe that decent earnings will be needed to see a continued rally in the coming months, as uncertainty surrounding trade and global growth can start weighing on corporates’ outlook. Earnings growth expectations have come down sharply already, and guidance has been negative, but risks remain. We expect markets to grind higher, but short-term corrections are still likely around headlines surrounding the trade war.

- The threshold for an upside surprise in Europe that would boost European assets remains lower than other regions, and so much negativity is already priced in, but investors remain shy because of ongoing political tensions. Over the medium term, we expect US markets to outperform thanks to higher growth and earnings.

- On the fixed income side, while yields have retreated in recent days, sovereign debt might still be pricing in too negative a scenario, and too many rate cuts. In Europe, Bunds briefly traded below the ECB’s deposit rate, dragging into negative yield territory over 13 trillion in bonds. Yields are back above 2%, nearing 2.10%, but they could rise a bit more if a stabilization unfolds or the Fed, in the coming months, isn’t as dovish as priced currently. Nonetheless, we maintain our positions in more core, defensive strategies as protection, as a sharp back-up in yields appears unlikely.

- Credit spreads have continued to tighten as well, although there is less room now compared to early 2018 lows. US HY, with its higher correlation to energy prices, has range-traded more recently. If negative growth expectations materialize, credit spreads will be at risk, but this isn’t our base case scenario and we expect range-trading to slightly tighter spreads, though overall performance is likely to come mostly from carry.

- With ongoing uncertainty and market sensitivity to headlines, we expect a challenging road ahead, and we continue to add absolute return, flexible strategies such as liquid alternatives for diversification. Indeed, as return expectations for traditional asset classes are challenged, alternatives can help fill gaps. We expect risk assets to grind higher and we maintain our exposure for now, but higher volatility and short-term corrections should be expected. It might not be time to add too much risk, but we don’t think it’s time to take it all off either.