Developed world consumption is likely to remain a key driver of global growth in 2019.
18.12.2018 | 13:00 Uhr
The rate of acceleration in
global economic growth has moderated from very strong levels in 2017
while growth rates by country and region
are also more differentiated and less synchronized. But we expect global
growth to be solid in 2019
and above long-term trend growth for at least the first half of the year.
Higher trade tariffs, rising bond yields,
policy uncertainty and higher geopo- litical risks all raise understandable concerns about the outlook for global
GDP into 2019.
without a more violent shift in
for any of
these themes, we expect the com- bined impact to be moderate.
Developed world consumption is likely
remain a key driver of global g owth in
Low unemployment and
continued wage growth across the US, UK, Europe
and Japan are the key factors here. US household
leverage is not particularly elevated— suggesting that consumption growth is unlikely to
demonstrate a high sensitivity to higher rates while wages are still rising and employment growth remains strong.
while monetary policy support to demand is likely to reduce further in 2019—it is likely to do so only gradually; financial conditions globally
are not restrictive.
Outside of the US, recent
fiscal and regulatory measures in China aimed at cushioning growth are likely to work their way through in
the coming months. In Europe
and Japan, we expect a pick-up in manufacturing production as one-off factors that have curtailed output in 2018
away. In the US we expect the growth impulse to remain comfortably above
trend but to moderate from the very
momentum of early in
2018 as the
starts to wane and as rate rises begin to take a