Rothschild & Co Asset Management: Marktausblick USA

Marc-Antoine, what do you think about the USA? What can we expect for the months to come?

Marc-Antoine: „The fear of an economic relapse has intensified recently as the country recorded the highest number of new daily infections since the beginning of the pandemic, with surging cases led by Florida, Arizona and Texas. Correspondingly, some US states declared the phased economic reopening will be halted and renewed restrictions amid overwhelmed health-care capacity.

The risk to the economy is significant as a further deterioration of the health situation could hurt consumer confidence and hence consumption. What’s more, with expanded unemployment benefits set to expire at the end of July, a failure to provide further fiscal support could constrain income, raising doubts about the durability of the nascent economic recovery. The economy has relied on the Fed and Congress to liquefy financial markets, boost asset prices and drive economic growth by avoiding temporary liquidity problems turning into a crippling solvency risk.

Yet, rating agencies have been forecasting a classic recession scenario, accompanied by a typical surge in bankruptcies, and the IMF recently warned that there might be a disconnect between economic and corporate fundamentals on the one hand, and risk appetite on the other hand. The upshot is that a V-shape recovery is highly uncertain, and risk of a W-shape is rising, which could trigger financial market turbulence as investors, currently positioned for a quick economic rebound, would start pricing in a much slower and bumpier recovery.“

Mehr Infos finden Sie bei Hendrik Adam und Maximilian Seim, Co-Heads Germany/Austria Rothschild & Co Asset Management, unter diesem Link.