Janus Henderson Investors zum USA-Iran-Konflikt

“Markets have broadly taken the US-Iranian spat in their stride. There have been comments from both sides that appear to have been designed to diffuse the situation without backing down. Global equities have brushed off the incidents so far and US Treasury yields are only slightly below where they started the year. The most significant moves occurred in gold where the price had at one point jumped in excess of 5% since the turn of the year.
 
The jump to over $1600 per troy ounce at one point has led to a disconnect in valuation compared to other assets. Falling US real bond yields have been the major factor driving the gold price higher since 2018. While real yields reacted to the geopolitical incidents, they have not justified the more intense rally in the yellow metal. Similarly, increasing volumes of negative yielding debt appeared to be making zero-income gold relatively more attractive but higher yields in recent months have lessened this support. Finally, positioning is stretched, suggesting that the latest spike will struggle to maintain its momentum.
 
Ultimately, events so far have been little more than a speed bump for markets that are more focused on incoming economic data that could clarify if the global slowdown is stabilising. The upcoming US labour market report and small business confidence may prove more important. Signs of an uptick in growth momentum would weigh on the safe haven assets that have benefited from the geopolitical events. Elsewhere, a better outlook could also put greater support under the oil price that has fallen back as both sides have signalled a willingness to de-escalate, as well as being the catalyst for any further equity upside.”