Morgan Stanley IM: 2023 - A Year of Long and Variable Lags
Jim Caron, Senior Advisor for the Fixed Income Team, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.
04.11.2022 | 08:41 Uhr
It is timely to connect the November Fed meeting with an outlook for
2023, as that meeting may mark the end of aggressive 75 basis point
(bps) hikes, where the pace may slow to 50 bps in December and 25 bps
A terminal Fed funds rate of 4.75 - 5.25% may be reached in 1Q 2023, dependent on inflation data. Nevertheless, the end is near.
This is important because interest rates hikes have been the key
driver of asset prices in 2022, and changes in policy likely will have a
strong influence on asset prices in 2023.
But it is important to understand that rate hikes will influence the
path of earnings, default risks and credit spreads, and ultimately the
type of recession we get, whether deep (earnings) or wide (spreads).
Why? Because as the Fed has said, rate hikes work with "long and
variable lags" making 2023 “The Year of Long and Variable Lags.”
Diversification does not eliminate risk
of loss. There is no assurance that a portfolio will achieve its
investment objective. Portfolios are subject to market risk, which is
the possibility that the market values of securities owned by the
portfolio will decline and that the value of portfolio shares may
therefore be less than what you paid for them. Market values can change
daily due to economic and other events (e.g. natural disasters, health
crises, terrorism, conflicts and social unrest) that affect markets,
countries, companies or governments. It is difficult to predict the
timing, duration, and potential adverse effects (e.g. portfolio
liquidity) of events. Accordingly, you can lose money investing in this
portfolio. Please be aware that this portfolio may be subject to certain
additional risks. Fixed income securities are subject to the
ability of an issuer to make timely principal and interest payments
(credit risk), changes in interest rates (interest-rate risk), the
creditworthiness of the issuer and general market liquidity (market
risk). In a rising interest-rate environment, bond prices may fall and
may result in periods of volatility and increased portfolio redemptions.
In a declining interest-rate environment, the portfolio may generate
less income. Longer-term securities may be more sensitive to interest rate changes. Mortgage- and asset-backed securities
are sensitive to early prepayment risk and a higher risk of default,
and may be hard to value and difficult to sell (liquidity risk). They
are also subject to credit, market and interest rate risks. Certain U.S. government securities
purchased by the Strategy, such as those issued by Fannie Mae and
Freddie Mac, are not backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. It
is possible that these issuers will not have the funds to meet their
payment obligations in the future. High-yield securities (“junk bonds”) are lower-rated securities that may have a higher degree of credit and liquidity risk. Public bank loans are subject to liquidity risk and the credit risks of lower-rated securities. Foreign securities are subject to currency, political, economic and market risks. The risks of investing emerging market countries are greater than risks associated with investments in foreign developed countries. Sovereign debt securities are subject to default risk. Derivative instruments
may disproportionately increase losses and have a significant impact on
performance. They also may be subject to counterparty, liquidity,
valuation, correlation and market risks. Restricted and illiquid securities may be more difficult to sell and value than publicly traded securities (liquidity risk).
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
The returns referred to in the audio are those of representative
indices and are not meant to depict the performance of a specific
There is no guarantee that any investment
strategy will work under all market conditions, and each investor should
evaluate their ability to invest for the long-term, especially during
periods of downturn in the market.
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