Kommentar zur Fed-Entscheidung

„Admittedly, the pick-up in economic data has not been of sufficient strength to force their hand in tightening monetary policy, with nominal GDP growth running at a pace of around 3.1% annualised over the past two quarters. But by highlighting the deterioration in financial conditions as part of their rationale for inaction – Fedspeak for higher bond and mortgage yields – after they had just spent many months talking bond yields higher, they have thrown their communication policy into disarray. And this from a central bank that values its communication policy as a major tool of monetary policy.

We had anticipated that they would taper bond purchases associated with their quantitative easing programme, and at the same time strengthen their forward guidance to temper and anchor rate rise expectations. In the end they came out with a much more dovish approach than even we had anticipated.

There’s the question, if this decision makes things more difficult from an asset allocation standpoint due to the uncertainty in Fed policy and how asset classes will move in the short term? We think, when future policy actions are well-telegraphed you tend to find these priced into markets. And so opportunities to add value by taking a different view from the market are less apparent. A greater level of uncertainty would tend to reward investors with medium-term horizons like us.

Finally, there’s the question, if the markets now be more volatile when tapering finally does occur. We don’t believe that the final trajectory of Fed tightening has changed, but the timing has been thrown into question, along with the credibility of the communication strategy. Communications consistent with an October or December taper will be greeted more warily, and so a period of heightened uncertainty, and with it market volatility, may surround the point at which tapering finally begins.“