Robeco: EZB bereit zu reagieren

EZB-Präsident Mario Draghi bestätigte, dass die EZB ihr QE-Programm ausweiten könnte. Er sagte jedoch auch, dass es zu früh sei zu entscheiden, ob dies wirklich nötig sei.

28.09.2015 | 10:12 Uhr

Main market events

Peripheral bonds underperformed German bonds somewhat this week despite renewed signalsthe ECB could up its asset purchase program. Spanish bonds lagged other peripheral markets asregional elections take place in Catalonia this Sunday. Portuguese bonds returned 3.2% thisyear, Italian bonds 3.1%, Irish bonds 1.0% and Spanish bonds -0.1%.


ECB executive board member Peter Praet said the ECB would forcefully react if the objective ofbeing close to 2 percent inflation would be pushed down further due to the global environment.President Draghi confirmed that the ECB can expand its QE program, but he also said it is tooearly to decide whether this is indeed necessary.


Syriza won the largest share of votes (35%) in Sunday’s election, well ahead of main opponentNew Democracy (28%). Tsipras appointed senior negotiators of the recent bailout program tothe top economic posts in a sign of commitment to the tough austerity program.


The Italian government revised up its 2016 deficit target from 1.8% to 2.2% of GDP as it aims toexpand its fiscal policy to support the nascent recovery.


S&P upgraded the sovereign credit rating for Portugal from BB to BB+, one notch belowinvestment grade, citing Portugal’s economic recovery and budgetary consolidation efforts.

Robeco Euro Government Bonds

We are cautiously optimistic on periphery. We continue to see the ECB’s QE program, thegenerally supportive stance of EU policy makers towards the periphery and the improvement ingrowth as positives for peripheral debt. On the other hand upcoming elections in Spain (regionaland general) and Portugal could cause some volatility.

The fund has an overweight in Portuguese bonds versus Italian bonds as Portugal benefitsdisproportionately from QE. We added to our overweight in Spanish bonds versus Italian bondsas we feel Spain’s underperformance due to election concerns is overdone. The fund maintainsits overweight in 10-year Irish bonds.
Peripheral bonds make up 34% of the fund. Year-to-date the fund’s absolute performance is 0.95%.

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