Robeco: Griechenland bereitet Reformliste vor

Peripheral markets remained under pressure this week, despite the ECB buying program. The tone of the discussions between Greece and the rest of the EU improved, but Greece has to demonstrate progress soon to release badly needed further aid tranches. Portuguese bonds have returned 6.4% this year, Italian bonds 5.0%, Spanish bonds 3.6% and Irish bonds 3.0%.

European Central Bank

President Draghi expressed his confidence that the ECB will manage to buy EUR 60 bln of bonds in March, even though the buying of government bonds started only in the second week of the month. He repeated that the ECB would continue to buy bonds at least until September 2016.

Greece

Tsipras wrote Merkel that Greece needs short-term financial assistance to meet imminent debt obligations. Merkel and Dijsselbloem pointed out that money can be released when Greece implements reforms. Technical talks with the ‘institutions’ (the former Troika) resumed and Greece promised to deliver a concrete list of proposals by next Monday – just like last week.

Portugal

S&P revised Portugal’s rating outlook to positive, citing the recovering growth prospects and policy makers’ commitment to fiscal consolidation. Tonight Fitch will review its BB+ rating. As Fitch already has a positive outlook, it might upgrade Portugal to Investment Grade.

Spain

Andalusia was the first region to hold regional elections this year. The Socialists remained the largest party in this region. Protest party Podemos gained fewer seats than expected by the polls, somewhat alleviating fears around the upcoming regional and national elections.

Robeco Euro Government Bonds

We remain positive on peripheral bond markets. Fundamentals are improving with stronger growth. The ECB’s bond buying allows countries to improve their debt sustainability by locking in the current affordable rates on their debt for a longer time. It also spurs the ‘search for yield’. Peripheral bonds remain attractive in this environment. Greek problems will continue to cause volatility, but in the end the effect of ECB buying will be more important. The fund has a preference for longer-dated peripheral bonds.

Die Analyse im pdf-Dokument