BNPP AM: MAQS Asset Allocation Monthly - August 2019

The latest issue of the Asset Allocation Monthly from BNP Paribas Asset Management’s Multi Asset, Quantitative & Solutions (‘MAQS’) investment group is now available.

01.08.2019 | 11:20 Uhr


 Fragile goldilocks still in place

  • The three key ‘goldilocks’ pillars (macro data, central banks, and trade war dynamics) remain supportive
  • Markets have already largely priced in this sweet spot
  • We continue to monitor the risk scenarios around our base case as we still see this as a ‘fragile goldilocks’

Central bank easing & market impact

  • The ECB strongly hinted at upcoming stimulus,  leaving the door open for rate cuts, rate tiering and QE
  • The Fed cut rates by 25bps and announced the end to its balance sheet drawdown, which we see as an ‘insurance cut’
  • Easing also continues in China
  • Cuts should support risk assets, depress real rates and revive inflation breakeven rates, although tactical risk/reward seems unattractive

Earnings season

  • With goldilocks increasingly priced in, we are monitoring fundamental developments closely
  • The current earnings season is reasonably solid, especially against a bearish consensus

Chinese easing

  • We are monitoring the impact of China’s easing on the domestic economy and key trading partners
  • Given the upturn in measures like the credit impulse, we are hopeful for some stabilisation in the macroeconomic backdrop in H2.

Den gesamten Report können Sie sich hier im PDF-Format downloaden.

Diesen Beitrag teilen: