Natixis: Die Rallye an den Aktienmärkten geht weiter

Esty Dwek, Head of Global Market Strategy bei Natixis Investment Managers, sieht in der globalen Wirtschaft wieder zarte Pflänzchen des Wachstums und hält daran fest, dass eine Rezession nicht unmittelbar bevorsteht. In ihrem aktuellen „Capital Market Pulse“ schreibt die Chefstrategin der Beratungsgruppe „Dynamic Solutions“ des globalen Investmenthauses: „Wir gehen davon aus, dass sich in den kommenden Quartalen eine Stabilisierung des Wachstums einstellen wird, angeführt von den USA und China, wo die Daten bereits auf Verbesserungen hinweisen. Das verarbeitende Gewerbe bleibt weltweit schwach, aber Dienstleistungen, Arbeitsmärkte und die Verbraucher halten stand, und gezielte Konjunkturmaßnahmen in China sowie die Unterstützung durch die Fed in den USA führen zu verbesserten Aussichten.

Nach einem sehr friedlichen Fed-Meeting rechnen die Märkte sogar damit, dass der nächste Schritt eine Zinssenkung sein wird, und dass er noch in diesem Jahr kommen wird. Daran glauben wir nicht. Mit einer Stabilisierung des Wachstums, einer Inflation, die sich angesichts höherer Energiepreise und eines starken Arbeitsmarktes voraussichtlich nach oben bewegen wird, erscheint es uns verfrüht, eine Zinssenkung zu erwarten. Dennoch glauben auch wir, dass die großen Zentralbanken während des gesamten Jahres 2019 die Zinsen nicht erhöhen werden.“

Vor diesem Hintergrund würde sich die Erholung der Aktienmärkte fortsetzen, wenn auch langsamer als zu Beginn des Jahres. Dennoch seien kurzfristige Korrekturen wahrscheinlich, ebenso wie eine höhere Volatilität, da viele Risiken nach wie vor existent seien –etwa das schwache Wachstum in Europa, der Brexit oder die nächste Schuldenobergrenze in den USA. „Eine anhaltende Rallye braucht die fundamentale Unterstützung durch ordentliches Wachstum der Unternehmensgewinne“, so Dwek. Zunächst jedoch seien die Kapitalzuflüsse noch verhalten gewesen, so dass nach der verpassten Rallye noch immer viel Cash am Rande des Spielfelds stehe, was dazu beitragen sollte, die Korrekturen relativ flach und kurzlebig zu halten.

Den vollständige „Capital Market Pulse“ von Natixis´„Dynamic Solutions“-Gruppe im englischen Original:

Capital Market Pulse

• We are starting to see green shots in the global economy
• The equity market rally continues, but at a milder pace, supported by improved growth expectations and dovish central banks
• We look to diversifying and de-correlating strategies, such as alternatives, to complement traditional asset classes

Macroeconomic overview

• While data remains mixed, we are starting to see some green shoots in the global economy and we continue to believe we are nowhere near a recession. We expect a stabilization in growth to materialize in the coming quarters, led by a stabilization in the US and China, were data is already pointing to improvements. Manufacturing remains weak globally, but services, labor markets and consumers are holding up, and targeted stimulus measures in China as well as easier financial conditions in the US thanks to a dovish Fed are translating into an improved outlook. Europe is still looking weak, but again services remain solid, and manufacturing may be turning a corner amid better global sentiment.
• The finalization of the US / China trade deal remains on track, although enforcement seems to be a lingering concern. We expect a deal to be reached in the coming months and are not surprised by the delay as trade deals take time and the market rally has removed urgency. As and when that gets done, Trump could turn his focus to Europe and the automobile sector, as he might want another ‘bad guy’ as we move closer to the US elections. However, the US and Europe are expected to start negotiating a trade deal shortly, which could help at least delay tariffs for now, which would be a welcome and much-needed reprieve for Europe.
• The Brexit saga is unlikely to abandon headlines as the UK has secured an extension to the end of October, and that doesn’t seem to be a hard deadline either. However, a less official deadline is the upcoming European elections, which the UK will need to participate in if they do not come to an agreement before May 22nd. There is still a small chance May manages to get her deal through with Labour support to avoid European elections. Otherwise the most likely outcome is probably a very long delay or virtually no Brexit at all.
• After a very dovish Fed meeting, markets believe the next move will be a rate cut, and that it will come this year, but we don’t think that will happen. With a stabilization in growth, inflation likely to move up amid higher energy prices and a strong labor market, expecting a cut seems premature. Nonetheless, while some rate pressure in markets is possible in a stronger second half of the year, we expect major central banks to be on hold throughout 2019. The ECB didn’t make any announcements at its latest meeting, but March had been heavy enough already.
• Oil prices continue to rally as the US announced it wasn’t going to extend the Iran waivers beyond May. Coupled with concerns about Venezuela and Libya output, this should continue to support prices in the near term. However, OPEC + (including Russia) could increase production in June, and softer global growth likely means weaker demand, which should cap prices over the medium term.

Market outlook

• The equity market rally continues, although at a slower pace than earlier in the year, which was to be expected. Markets have come around to a more optimistic growth outlook, supported by dovish central banks and improvements in US/China trade. Nonetheless, short term corrections are likely, as is higher volatility even as markets grind higher in the coming months, because plenty of risks remain (European growth, Brexit, US debt ceiling). We also believe that fundamental support from decent earnings growth will be necessary to support an ongoing rally. For now though, inflows have been timid, so plenty of cash remains on the sidelines having missed the rally, which should help keep corrections relatively shallow and short-lived.
• Treasury yields have stabilized back around 2.55% following the temporary yield curve inversion. While an inversion is an ominous sign, not all yield curve inversions have led to recessions, and usually lag time is 12-18 months. In addition, the inversion was very short lived, so while it is something to watch, we are not worried about the signal for now. We continue to expect broad range-trading, although some upward pressure on yields could come if growth improves and inflation steadily increases amid higher energy prices. Even though duration doesn’t add much in terms of yield, we are less worried about gradually adding duration to portfolios with more core, defensive strategies as move later in the cycle.
• Credit spreads continue to tighten, as demand for yield persists amid lower global yields following the latest retracement. On US IG, we do not expect yields to tighten back to 2018 lows, but HY has further tightening potential given a rebound in oil prices and a gradually improving growth outlook. We continue to look for flexible, absolute return strategies that can adapt to evolving market conditions.
• The complex investment environment we are navigating is unlikely to abate, implying that absolute return, more flexible strategies that can diversify portfolios continue to be welcome additions. Indeed, as return expectations for traditional asset classes are sub-par, alternatives continue to have their place to help fill gaps. We expect risk assets to continue to grind higher, and maintain our exposure. It might not be time to add too much risk, but we don’t think it’s time to take it all off either.