Morgan Stanley IM: Equity Market Commentary

Let me begin with two comments:

1. Valuation analysis is only as good as the accuracy of Wall Street’s predictions. Currently, in my opinion, these predictions are more inaccurate than normal.
2. I do not think the S&P 500 (cap-weighted) is nearly as “expensive” as many of the experts would suggest.

• They represent the present value of future expectations.
• I think that was part of my day-one orientation at the University of Chicago.
• For that reason, when evaluating the attractiveness of a stock or the market overall, there is an assessment made of future revenues, cash flows and/or earnings.
• That generally falls into the denominator of valuation analysis.
• For instance, to look at a “P/E” (price/earnings ratio) multiple, we take the actual price in the numerator and divide by some estimate of future earnings in the denominator.

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RISK CONSIDERATIONS

Diversification does not eliminate the risk of loss. There is no assurance that a portfolio will achieve its investment objective. Portfolios are subject to market risk, which is the possibility that the market values of securities owned by the portfolio will decline and may therefore be less that what you paid for them. Market values can change daily due to economic and other events (e.g. natural disasters, health crises, terrorism, conflicts and social unrest) that affect markets, countries, companies or governments. It is difficult to predict the timing, duration, and potential adverse effects (e.g. portfolio liquidity) of events. Accordingly, you can lose money investing in this portfolio. Please be aware that this portfolio may be subject to certain additional risks. In general, equities securities’ values also fluctuate in response to activities specific to a company. Stocks of small- and medium-capitalization companies entail special risks, such as limited product lines, markets and financial resources, and greater market volatility than securities of larger, more established companies. Investments in foreign markets entail special risks such as currency, political, economic, market and liquidity risks. Illiquid securities may be more difficult to sell and value than publicly traded securities (liquidity risks). Non-diversified portfolios often invest in a more limited number of issuers. As such, changes in the financial condition or market value of a single issuer may cause greater volatility.