Wir gehen nicht davon aus, dass die US-Notenbank Fed sich diese Woche für konkrete Maßnahmen hinsichtlich einer Zinsanhebung entscheidet. Diese Einschätzung gilt, obwohl eine Vielzahl der Komitee-Mitglieder – darunter auch Janet Yellen – erst kürzlich von einer Verbesserung der wirtschaftlichen Lage sprach und eine Zinsanhebung im Laufe des Sommers in Aussicht gestellt hat.
In our view, if the incoming data is reasonably good, then the Fed will be hiking rates in the not-too-distant future.
Last Friday's US payroll figures have sent the likelihood of a June rate hike by the Fed pretty well back to zero. But as ever, we can't hope to understand the implications of one piece of data by looking at it in isolation.
The Federal Reserve is not an advocate of mystery – quite the opposite. Its default position is to reveal all to the market, the only problem being that the market's faith in the Fed's revelations is distinctly shaky. And when it comes to monetary policy, one could go as far as to say, the logic of the market is at odds with the logic of the Fed. Maybe the Fed should reveal less and surprise more.
„Wir rechnen mit einer Leitzinserhöhung zur Jahresmitte. Doch ob es angebracht ist, im Juni die Zinsen zu erhöhen, dürfte eine knappe Entscheidung werden. Dabei dürften auch die Bedenken des Federal Open Market Committee hinsichtlich der systemischen Risiken eine Rolle spielen, die vom Referendum über einen Brexit ausgehen“, sagt David Page, Senior Economist bei AXA Investment Managers.
The Fed is worrying again about the ongoing deceleration of China's economy and the possible ramifications of a hard landing for the global economy. The trade channel is the most obvious one through which a Chinese hard landing would be transmitted to the rest of the world. But since the direct trade exposure of developed markets to China is relatively limited, why are the markets and the Fed so worried?
Does the Fed lead the market, or does the market lead the Fed? Who is in charge? The old adage may say never fight the Fed, but the Fed's critics would suggest it may be more a case of the Fed not wishing to fight the market. The Fed would disagree; after all they are both looking at the same data. But neither the Fed nor the market have been that good at forecasting the data in any case.
"Wir haben es momentan nicht mit normalen Zeiten zu tun", kommentiert Didier-Saint Georges, Managing Director und Mitglied des Investmentkommitees von Carmignac. die gestrige Zinsentscheidung der US-Notenbank (Fed).
Der Mangel des Landes an fiskalischer Disziplin könnte eine Abwertung durch die Ratingagenturen nach sich ziehen. Dieser Ansicht ist Manolis Davradakis, Investmentstratege bei AXA Investment Managers.
When the US Federal Reserve chose not to hike rates in September, the market zoomed in on the one line expressing the Fed’s sudden concern about the wider global economy. Suddenly a rate hike in December was deemed unlikely. Then last week the Fed reversed course and went back to its usual domestic focus. But is the data pointing to an altogether different scenario?