Robeco Financial Markets Map

Zusammenfassung

Equity markets monthly commentary

Tentative signs of a loss of momentum in the manufacturing slowdown and an increased probability of a ’Phase 1‘ truce between US and China Equity markets sent global equities higher in October. Open, export-oriented economies like emerging markets were lifted most, with emerging equities generating 3.0%. Cyclical assets like commodities are still lagging.

Equity themes monthly commentary

Tech and health care performed strongly in October, while the energy sector showed persisting negative momentum. Sectors with a more persistent,stable earnings growth profile were in the lead. The lift in sentiment around a US-China trade deal also boosted sentiment towards broader EM assets and EM infrastructure. In contrast, global infrastructure lagged by 5.2%. Frontier markets, like African equities lost -0.9%.

Factors & Systematic strategies monthly commentary

The internal market style rotation observed in September from growth towards value did not continue in October, as growth stocks managed to beat their value counterparts by 0.9%. Interestingly, value has beaten momentum for yet another month as investor sentiment remains bearish overall, hampering momentum stocks.

Fixed Income style monthly commentary

Global macro data has remained unconvincing, leaving the US 10 year moving largely sideways in October. In the Eurozone, bond yields moved higher, with German government bonds generating a loss of 1.4%. EMD local currency and risky fixed income in the US managed to generate positive returns on a monthly basis. 

Fixed Income style YTD commentary

Within sovereign fixed income, peripheral Eurozone countries are enjoying positive momentum this year on the back of open-ended ECB QE and positive growth differentials versus the core Eurozone countries as Germany is facing a contraction in economic activity.

Commodities monthly commentary

Nickel has been skyrocketed by supply-side constraints (Indonesia export ban) and inventory depletion this year, showing a YTD return of + 58.2%. Gold has staged a comeback since the start of the year as real interest rates (opportunity costs of holding gold) have decreased.