Ein Kommentar von Elissa Johnson, Co-Managerin des Secured Loans Fund, und Oliver Bardot, Associate Portfolio Manager innerhalb des Secured Loans Teams bei Janus Henderson Investors.
US money growth, on a range of measures, picked up significantly during H2 2019. This suggests a revival of economic momentum in mid-2020 but near-term data could be surprisingly weak.
UK rate cut sceptics argue that a rise of 135.000, or 0.5%, in the number of employees in the three months to November from the prior three months signals a strong labour market and will give MPC doves a reason to climb down.
A fall in Chinese money growth during H2 2019, especially in real terms, suggests that the economy will remain weak through H1 2020.
Six-month growth of global (i.e. G7 plus E7) real narrow money is estimated to have been unchanged at 2.4% (not annualised) in December.
The Chinese GDP numbers released on Friday appeared to show a strong pick-up in nominal growth in Q4. This was puzzling but possibly attributable to the recent food-driven inflation surge. Some analysts latched onto the pick-up as a bullish signal.
Tom Ross, Corporate Credit Portfolio Manager, erläutert die Aussichten für Hochzinsanleihen im neuen Jahr.
The forecast here a year ago was that the MPC would cut Bank rate to 0.5% during 2019. This was wrong in fact but right in spirit, as reflected in a significant downward shift in the yield curve.
Andrew Gillan and Mervyn Koh, Asian growth equities portfolio managers, provide a year-end review of the market and discuss where they see compelling opportunities to invest in Asia’s vast growth potential.
Andrew Mulliner, Portfolio Manager within Global bonds, believes that 2020 will prove to be a year of two halves with a rosier outlook likely later in the year. He cautions, however, that attractive opportunities might be harder to come by given downside risks such as a re‑escalation of trade wars and uncertainty from the US elections.
