16.11.2015 | 11:06 Uhr

Robeco: Rentenmarkt holt auf

Robeco: Rentenmarkt holt auf

Hoffnungen auf weitere geldpolitische Lockerungen treiben den Rentenmarkt. Spanien und Portugal leiden jedoch unter steigenden politischen Spannungen.

Rentenmarkt Volkswirtschaft

Main market events

Peripheral bond returns were mixed last week, with Italy leading while Spain and Portugallagged Germany. Bond markets rallied due to increased expectations of further central bankstimulus, but Spain and Portugal were hurt by rising political tensions. Italian bonds havereturned 4.4% this year, Portuguese bonds 1.8%, Irish bonds 1.3% and Spanish bonds 1.0%.

ECB

ECB President Draghi clearly reinforced his case for additional monetary policy stimulus. Adeposit rate cut now seems highly likely, with the debate shifting to the magnitude of the cut.

Portugal

The Portuguese parliament voted against the program of the freshly appointed centre-rightgovernment, which now needs to step down. As a next step president Silva has to decide toeither appoint socialist leader Antonio Costa as the new Portuguese prime minister or appoint acaretaker government until fresh national elections can take place (April 2016 at the earliest).

Greece

The Eurogroup delayed the decision to release the EUR2 bln bailout tranche to Greece, as thegovernment is already three weeks behind schedule in bailout implementation. A deadline hasnow been set at the beginning of next week for Greece to finalize the negotiations.

Spain
The Catalan Parliament passed a motion to begin the independence process. The centralgovernment appealed the motion to the Constitutional Court, which has up to five months toformulate a ruling. Catalonia intends to apply the motion irrespective of the Court’s decision.Fitch has cut the credit rating of Catalonia to BB due to the escalation of tensions.

Robeco Euro Government Bonds

We continue to see the ECB’s QE program, the generally supportive stance of EU policy makerstowards the periphery and the improvement in growth as positives for peripheral debt. On theother hand risk aversion in wider financial markets (related to emerging markets, commoditiesand expected FED tightening) and further political uncertainty might weigh on the periphery.Overall the fund has significantly reduced its periphery exposure in recent weeks. Currently thefund has overweight positions in Portugal and Ireland versus underweight positions in Spanishand Italian bonds. Portugal benefits disproportionately from QE and strong economic growth israpidly improving the Irish debt metrics. Peripheral bonds make up 28% of the fund. Year-to-datethe fund’s absolute return is 1.36%.

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